Following the Sharps and Understanding Line Movement
In last week's post we discussed betting Moneylines and Totals, today we'll discuss what line movement is and when you should use line movement as an indicator of sharp money. Let's get right into Week 3 of Lock It In!
1. Line Movement, What is it?
Each week when Vegas sets the lines and totals for the upcoming week of games, the lines change instantly. This doesn't happen by accident. Spreads and totals can easily be manipulated by big money gamblers that we refer to as "sharps." These are the gamblers who risk large amounts of money on a single game and as a result, these tend to be the professional gamblers. It can sometimes be a great advantage to see where the sharps are putting their money and may give recreational gamblers an edge. Let's look at an example. This week in the NFL there is a battle of unbeatens taking place in Nashville when the 5-0 Titans host the 5-0 Steelers. This game, as you can imagine, can be a tough game to pick because these are two of the best teams in the NFL. When the line was originally posted earlier in the week, the Steelers were slight favorites at -1.5. However, since the line was posted the "sharp" gamblers have wagered a lot of money on the Titans as home underdogs (+1.5). The sportsbooks understand this and adjust the lines accordingly. As of writing on Sunday morning, the Titans are now favorites at -1.5 and the Steelers are now +1.5. That is a big change in line movement and resulted in Vegas switching the favorite and underdog for this matchup. Another indicator of sharp money coming in on this game is seeing the percentage of money wagered vs percentage of bets. Let's say for example that 80% of the public money was being reported on the Steelers but that money represented only 40% of the actual bets on the Steelers. This means that there are fewer actual bets on Pittsburgh, but those bets are wagering a lot of money. That is an indication of "sharps" or professional gamblers wagering a lot on the Steelers. Understanding how the lines have changed and why they have changed can give recreational bettors an indication of where the best gamblers are wagering their money and can be a great asset to you when making your picks.
2. What is Reverse Line Movement?
Reverse Line Movement is another great way to see where the pros are putting their money. If most of the public bets are being placed on a certain team but the line moves in the opposite direction, that's an indication of reverse line movement, which means that the sharps are going opposite the public causing the sportsbooks to adjust their lines. While this can be helpful in making your bets, it's not the end all be all and you shouldn't blindly place bets just because sharp money in on a team. It is still extremely important to not risk more than you can afford to lose, even if the professionals are betting on a certain line. Bankroll management is still crucial to being a smart, responsible bettor and you should always never double down on a specific game, despite the line movement.
Now you've learned about how the lines move and what causes them to move but there's still a lot to learn. In the next blog we'll discuss betting trends and when following them is important and when you can fall into traps. Follow these tools and you'll be ready to make money and do it responsibly!
Sources: https://ats.io/nfl/nfl-betting-odds-market-report/39141/
¬¬ Hi Ethan, I really like this post because it is very informative and insightful even for someone like myself that knows a little bit about how sports betting works. I was aware that Vegas would adjust lines based on how much of the public money was going where, but I was not aware that these were mostly large wagers by professionals. Personally, I wait until the day before games are played to place my bets because I don’t want to take a line early in the week and then have the line change to a more advantageous number. Do you use the same method and wait until the lines have moved? Also, how much stock do you put into where the sharps are putting their money? I know you said it’s not an end all be all, but surely siding with the pros could be a good strategy. I was also wondering what kind of wagers you prefer. Between straight bets, parlays and teasers, which do you think are the most effective? I have found that teasers are a lot of fun. Because you have a lot of control over the lines. Overall, this is a great blog because it’s about a very relevant topic and an area of society that is growing exponentially. Sports betting is becoming more and more accepted in the sports world and will definitely continue on this trend. An example of this is how pregame shows often show the game lines and totals during their broadcast, something that never happened even five years ago.
ReplyDeleteThis blog is super interesting and a really insightful read. I'm not going to lie, I'm still very confused about how sports betting works (but I've also never had a huge interest in the topic and I personally find math to be one of the most confusing topics to ever exist) but I still enjoyed reading about the process and how it works. I think you did a great job breaking down how line movement works in Las Vegas. I had never heard of terms like "sharps" before, and I think you explained them really well. I loved the example you used of how people are betting on the Steelers. It really helped me understand a little better about how the process works and what to look for. Now, I don't think I'm going to be betting on sports anytime soon, but the next time my dad calls to talk about his plans for betting on the Super Bowl, I will definitely use what I've learned from your blog and surprise him with my new knowledge!
ReplyDeleteAs someone who knows nothing about football, this was a very informative and insightful article. I was able to follow it mostly without any confusion despite not knowing much about the sport. I liked the way you explained how people watch NFL and gamble or place bets based on where the line is. I think it is also important to know how the line can be unpredictable at times and the importance of not always trusting it. I have never heard of terms such as "sharps" and I think you did a great job breaking it down for me. I thought it was cool hearing about how to wait for lines to move and how they start moving instantly. Using Las Vegas as a case example was definitely helpful in order to better understand how placing bets worked. Overall, I really enjoyed your article. I may not be an expert, but I definitely have a stronger knowledge on placing bets.
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