Making Money on Moneylines? It's Harder Than It Looks
Last week we looked at bankroll management and discussed how betting favorites and underdogs works. This week, it's time to discuss what moneylines and totals are, how to bet them, and most importantly, how to be responsible while doing it. Lets get right to it!
1. What are Moneylines?
When you're looking to bet any game you have a lot of options. As we mentioned last week, you can pick teams to win or lose by a certain number of points. However, that's not the only way you can pick winners. A moneyline bet is one of the easiest bets you can make at a sportsbook. Simply put, it means betting a specific team to win the game. If the 49ers are playing the Chiefs and you think the Chiefs are going to win but you don't know by how much, you can simply bet Chiefs moneyline and hope they win the game by any amount of points. However, there's a catch. Betting moneylines can be difficult because the odds are very poor. Because oddsmakers know it's a lot easier to simply pick the winner of the game and not by a certain number of points, the odds for moneylines can be very high. That means as a bettor, you would have to risk a lot more money to win a lot less when betting a moneyline. This is much easier to understand when looking at an example. This Sunday, the Giants are in Dallas to face the Cowboys. The Cowboys are listed as 9-point favorites (-9). Now, if you want to bet the Cowboys to win but don't think they will win by more than 9 points, you can look to the moneyline. The moneyline odds currently are -360 for the Cowboys. That means that a bettor must risk $360 to win $100. That's extremely risky and a lot of money to put down to only win a fraction of that if the Cowboys win. Conversely, if you think the Giants will pull off the upset and will win outright, you can look to bet the Giants moneyline at +320. That means if a bettor risks $100 on the Giants and the Giants do in fact win the game, that bettor would win $320. That's a $220 profit on the game. As you can see, betting moneylines can be very risky and complicated, and it's up to responsible bettors to look for value on certain games. A smart way to bet moneylines is to only bet moneylines that are reasonably priced. Anything listed at -150 or better is always a good benchmark for betting them. The less you have to risk to win that same amount back, the better.
2. Betting Game Totals
Another way to bet games is betting the total number of points scored to go over or under the total. In addition to setting the spread and moneyline odds, oddsmakers are also responsible for setting the total number of points they think will be scored in a particular game. Let's go back to our example from earlier. The total for the Giants-Cowboys game on Sunday is set at 54 points. If you think it will be a tight defensive battle, betting the under 54 might be a good move. However, if you think it will be high scoring, the over might be for you. It's important to understand that most casual bettors love betting the over because it's more fun rooting for points to be scored. The oddsmakers understand this and as a result, often set the total multiple points higher than what it should actually be because they know the "casual" bettors will take the over no matter the total. This is why, it's important as bettors to be careful which totals they choose and stay away from because the oddsmakers sometimes make trap totals knowing they can manipulate the public.
Next week, we're going to look at line movement and what we call sharp line movement so we can learn how to analyze shifts in odds and how to use that information to make smarter picks.
Sources: https://www.safestbettingsites.com/nfl-betting/nfl-moneylines
https://news.sportsinteraction.com/guide/moneyline-betting-explained#:~:text=A%20moneyline%20bet%20is%20one,is%20solely%20about%20who%20wins.
I really learned alot from your post, especially since I came in with a very little understanding of sports betting. This was my first introduction to moneylines, and the world of sports betting and I was able to understand your blog really easily. I don’t know if I feel comfortable to start betting right away, but I found your explanations of the different types of bets you can make to be clear and concise. I also really liked your examples, they made the content much easier to understand. I am also a visual learner so having the chart at the beginning of your post also helped me to contextualize what you were talking about. If there was one thing that I could recommend it would be to include more visuals. Adding in more charts or even relevant pictures would only add my understanding of your blog.
ReplyDeleteEthan, thank you for creating this post! I found it so helpful that I went back and read your first blog post to see what else you wrote about. I always hear my brother talking about sports betting and the saga of how much money he either won or lost. However, I’ve tried to get him to explain it to me several times, to the point where he now rolls his eyes and gives up as soon as I ask a question. I’m going to send him your post to show him how to explain sports betting in the future lol.
ReplyDeleteI especially appreciated how you highlighted the traps that one can often fall in when placing bets and how to avoid them. Prior to reading this blog post, I probably would have jumped the gun and been the one to fall into these traps.
I agree with Wendy’s point above about visuals but overall, I look forward to reading more of your posts in the future!
Ethan, as a sports fan who has heard about gambling for a long time, I may be more knowledgeable than your other readers. But, you do a great job of breaking everything down. You're absolutely right that betting a team's money line can be very difficult due to the odds Las Vegas puts in place. They would much rather you gamble on the spread, a lot more risky of a move. I thought it was great that you include how the math adds up when you put down a bet and how -360 means 360 dollars for a 100 dollar profit. This can be a very confusing concept for those who may know nothing about gambling, but you did a great job of giving an easy to understand example. I really loved your explanation of trap totals. There's no doubt that Las Vegas knows people love the over and will use this to their advantage, which is a point I do not here about often in the gambling world. Great job!
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