Undestanding Betting Trends and Pitfalls to Avoid

   

Source: The Action Network

    We've reached the final blog of Lock It In! You're almost ready to pick some winners and do so responsibly. For today's blog we'll discuss betting trends, what they are, and some pitfalls to avoid when reading game lines. Let's get started! 

1. Betting Trends, what are they?

    When looking at a board of games there are a lot of numbers and statistics and it can be overwhelming at first glance. But, there's no need to be scared as the numbers are actually there to help bettor's understand where to put there money. To understand trends, we have to understand what bet percentages are, and how they differ from money percentages. A bet percentage (Bet%) indicates the percentage of bets on a certain line. It represents the number of bets that were placed on a line. For example, for tonight's Sunday Night Football game between the Saints and Bucs, the bet percentage is close to an even split. 52% of the bets are on the Bucs spread (-3) while 48% of the bets are on the Saints spread (+3). However, to get a better indication of who is betting on each we have to look at the money percentage (Money%). For tonight's game, 65% of the money being wagered is being wagered on the Saints. So the Saints tonight, have only 48% of the bets, and yet they have 65% of the money. This is an indication of sharp money. If you remember last week's post, sharp money is money being bet by "big bettors" or "pro bettors." Often times it's useful to see what side the sharps are on in order to determine who you should be on. Understanding money% vs bet% can be an easy indicator of where the pros are betting and can make picking your bets much easier. 

2. Pitfalls to avoid

    It's important to understand when looking at bet and money percentages that they aren't always the lone indicator of sharp money. When a team getting most of the money but a minority of the bets, it's important to check and see how the line has moved. Often times, as we know, the oddsmakers will adjust the line in the direction of where the public is betting. Using tonight's game as an example, despite most of the money coming in on the Saints spread, the oddsmakers have actually shifted the Saints line in the opposite direction. The line opened with Saint's +4.5 and despite the majority of the money coming in on the Saints, the line has actually gone down to +3.5. This is what we call reverse steam movement. This means that despite the public being all over the Saints, the sharps/professional bettors have placed big bets on the Bucs, causing the oddsmakers to adjust accordingly. See, the oddsmakers don't care where the public is betting as much as they care about where the pros are betting. This is why, as casual bettors it's important to find out where the sharps are placing their money. So, when assessing betting trends before placing your bets, be sure to not only check the bet and money percentages, but also check to see which direction the line has moved in order to see where the professional bettors are putting their money. Using these tools and tricks won't guarantee success, but will make it much easier to bet responsibly and have success while doing it. 

Sources: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/uab-vs-south-alabama-odds-sharp-betting-pick-late-key-number-september-24

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/guides/strategy/betting-trends/